Tuesday, July 16, 2019

FPL 19/20 Chapter 1: Pre-season ramble, The rocks.




It is that time of the year again. 

100 million pounds

15 players

38 Game-weeks

And only one winner at the end well deserving enough to gloat on his success.

Who to pick?

It is futile to make an in-depth analysis of teams and their preseason matches to extrapolate expected results. Likewise, it is challenging to predict how players from the newly promoted teams (Sheffield United, Aston Villa and Norwich) are going to fare in the EPL. 

Too many possible factors. Let's keep it simple for our own mental well-being and avoid making 1000 iterations of a team during pre-season.

We can, however, have a list of "essentials" that would make up the bulk of the team budget.

Similar to the rock, pebble and sand analogy/advice towards life/time management. 


“Now,” the professor said as the laughter subsided. “I want you to recognize that this jar represents your life. The golf balls are the important things. Your family, your children, health, friends and favorite passions. If everything else was lost and only they remained, your life would still be full. The pebbles are the other things that matter like your job, your house or car. The sand is everything else, the small stuff.

It is a guarantee most FPL teams are going to contain players from the top 2 teams. Both Man City and Liverpool amassed nearly 100 points each in the previous season. 





Generally, at this stage, it is safer to go consistency and historical data to base to choose your team. We can leave the gambles and the risky moves during mid-season.

The Rocks

At best, if you have great budget management you can possibly fill in about 5 of the below "rocks" in your team. 4 should be the basic. Possibly more if the team has a couple of bench fodders. 

Pros and cons of the strategies that you'd be taking. Such is life.



Alisson is at 32.3% ownership and it is of no surprises the 3 Liverpool defenders (rather than the Man City defenders) above are the most owned players in a team currently.

With De Bruyne fit and well he might be included in the first team. Bernardo Silva has been an integral part of Guardiola's team last season but is currently a rotation risk along with Sterling. However, the goals and points should be coming from Sterling/De Bruyne. 

Mane still has AFCON finals (along with Mahrez if you care enough about him). He might not be starting as well for the first few games of EPL 2019/20.

In order of "rocks" rating of the top 6, I'd go with this

1. Alisson
2. Trent Alexander Arnold
3. Robertson
4. Aguero
5. De Bruyne 
6. Sterling

Well, that is it for now. Keep it simple. Put in your rocks and the rest can be decided later. Most importantly, have fun and enjoy the journey.



D-day for transfers: Sat 10 Aug 02:00 (Singapore Time)


https://balancedaction.me/2012/10/17/the-jar-of-life-first-things-first/


https://www.fplanalytics.com/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zKXCX4BoizwHdARVHbIYNvZr7GcE0QBNqktUiFtsjg8/edit

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