FPL 19/20 Chapter 12: Vardy Party?

Leicester has great upcoming Fixtures. Arsenal might be allocated an FDR (Fixture Difficulty Rating) of 4. However, based on the past results, they might as well be a 2. Following that is a "sea of green" fixtures.

The only "tough fixture" would be Manchester City in GW 18.

It might be worth stacking up on their players for now if you have not done so yet.

Let's go through the list of potential points magnets.

1) Vardy (9.4 million)
Consistent. Clinical finisher. On form. A must-have right now and potentially would be the most Cap next GW

2) Maddison (7.4 million)
Definite starter. He takes pens/freekicks/corners, provides the assists and sometimes the goals.

3) Chilwell (5.7 million)
A very offensive wingback. Almost got a goal the previous game and was heavily involved in demolishing Southampton in their 0-9 win

4) Tielemans (6.6 million)
His form is getting better. Scored against Burnley and scored/assist against Southampton. Potential differential with 8.7 % ownership right now.

5) Perez (6.1 million)
A hat trick against Southampton shows what he is capable worth. He was one of the few highly rated players due to pre-season performance. Has not got a good start in the beginning of the season but maybe the hat trick was enough to get the ball rolling? Also, another differential with 6.3% ownership

6) Söyüncü (4.8 million)
The Maguire replacement. Cheap, consistent. If Leicester continues to get Clean sheets, he will continue to stack points.

Have I convinced you yet?

Get your Blue Army soldiers today!

FPL 19/20 Chapter 11: Devils Rising from the Ashes?

Man United won the last 3/3 games they played. Denied Liverpool a win at Old Trafford. Won at Stamford Bridge. Plus with Martial back, Man Utd might be getting more goals in now. Furthermore, Martial is a Mid playing a "Striker's role".

He is another Lundstram.

Personally, how I'd go about choosing players

1) Players who play out of position.(Lundstram and Martial in this case. Probably must haves)
2) Players in form, consistent points for at least 2 GWs
3) Players who would 90% play. (So probably not many City players)
4) FDR

Fixture Difficulty Ratings are not reliable now as probably anything can happen in FPL. However, having said that, these teams look good and have players consistently bringing in the points.

All the best for GW11!

FPL 19/20 Chapter 10: All aboard the CHO CHO train!

Forget Pukki, there is a new train in town.

Callum Hudson-Odoi (CHO) is currently valued at 6.0 mil and was recently awarded 3 BPS for the previous game at home against Newcastle. He only has a 3% ownership in FPL. He plays well on the wing but also has a chance to be rotated with Pulisic.

However given his recent form, he might be provided more playing time in the future. Mount owners need not fret as his position would not be affected by CHO's resurgence in the game. He is Lampard's go-to man for now.

As Man City has a propensity for rotation, there are some non-City players worth looking at (i.e Highly likely to play + Highly like to score) this coming GW.

1) Vardy (9.1 mil). The focal point of Leicester. Goals would have to come through him and it helps that he is the most in-form striker in the league thus far.

2) Aubameyang (11.1 mil). Slightly pricier but Arsenal are playing at home. Arsenal hasn't been playing well lately. Once they get their midfield sorted out, goals should be coming in for him.

A worthy point to note as well is that the previous GW 9 Dream team was made up of players with relatively low ownership.

Could we see a repeat this upcoming GW? Only time would tell.

Remember to make changes before Friday! #fifafairplay

FPL 19/20 Chapter 9: Salah, Salah choice?!

Finally, International fixtures are coming to an end again and FPL is back!

Not many injuries to look at for now. KDB's status is still not confirmed. Salah is still nursing an injury and has trained separately from the main team as well. Would it be prudent to take Salah out now?

Many Salah owners have recently stopped believing in him after the past 8 games.
From a points perspective,  he is not worth the 12.5 million price tag. Especially when there are better performers at that price point (Mane and KDB specifically).

Salah’s next 5 fixtures - MUN(A), TOT(H), AVL(A), MCI(H), CRY(A)

- He has never scored or assisted against Man United in the Premier League in 4 appearances.

- He has 3 goals & 1 assist against Tottenham in 4 appearances.

Source: https://twitter.com/footytistics/status/1181275170050207744

He might or might not play as well this coming derby against Man Utd given that he was still recovering from an injury. However, if he does play, it would be against a severely weakened Red Devils side with Pogba, AWB and De Gea still out injured.

Source: https://twitter.com/LynchStandard/status/1184101071536435201?s=09

There are some rational reasons to keep Salah in your team. Comparing just the first 8 games, he has performed slightly better than last season. Top goalscorers in the EPL 2018/2019 were Auba, Mane and him. Furthermore, he has the most touches in the box compared to any other player. Well, if only those touches become actual goals. That would be great.

Source: https://twitter.com/RebantMalhotra/status/1181973963431243776?s=09 

Will the Salah disbelievers be punished for their weakness in faith? Time will only tell.

FPL 19/20 Chapter 8: The KDB Conundrum Part Deux

A few delicious fixtures in this upcoming GW. UCL/Europa matches in the midweek ended without many high-profile injuries.

There are a few notable matches in GW7 with high scoring possibilities from Man City, Arsenal, Norwich and Liverpool. Liverpool's game might still be tough considering Leicester's defensive form so far (2 CS, 6 goals conceded out of 7 games). However, it is Anfield so let's not disregard that.

Also, please press "F" to pay respects for KDB owners right now for their saviour is down. He would most likely be back after the International matches.

Two possible options right now for KDB owners coming into GW 8.

1) Saving the Transfer for GW 9 and have a "mini-Wildcard"

2) Or bringing in any City Midfielder to capitalize on City's home game vs Wolves in GW 7

Option 2 is riskier as no one other then Sterling right looks likely to be starting for City. Pep Roulette has failed us time again. However, then again the risks might be worth the rewards if you choose the right player.

Do remember again next GW9 is on 19th October due to the International matches.

Have a great GW and may the points be in your favour.

FPL 19/20 Chapter 7: Differential Solutions

differential

 adjective

dif·​fer·​en·​tial | \ ˌdi-fə-ˈren(t)-shəl  \

Definition of differential

1a: of, relating to, or constituting a difference : DISTINGUISHINGdifferential characteristics

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/differential

Differentials play a huge part in FPL. A differential in FPL terms is a player who is least owned but has high potential points returns. Information regarding such potential differentials was not easily available before. Some websites even charged a premium to such exclusive information!

Thanks to blogs such as Bolakakis and many others, this would no longer be a concern. It does help that we are living an age where data-analysis is hyped up.

FPL photo of an old season

Here are some potential differentials for the upcoming gameweek and season in general.

1. Burnley - Defender Matthew Lowton (4.5 mil, 0.9% ownership)

Good fixtures for the next 8 games other than Chelsea. Also a .1 million cheaper than Pieters who might be rotated. He also has the potential for assists. At 4.5 mil, he allows for more funds towards other premium players. The only downside is that it would not be wise to double on a Burnley defence (if you already have Pope.

2. Tottenham Hotspurs - Midfielder Son Heung-Min (9.7 mil , 8.6% ownership)

Fixture proof candidate. One of the few reliable offensive players in Spurs (other than Kane which is overpriced). Next game vs Southampton at home. Plays a more central role as of late with Kane laying the balls to him.

3. Bournemouth - Forward Callum Wilson ( 7.8 mil, 10.7% ownership)

Consistently providing the points since GW1, one way or another. Relatively good fixtures ahead as well. His price dropped since majority took him out for some reason. Probably to board the Pukki train. However, given the good upcoming fixtures and his current form, it would not be a silly move to get him back in.

All the best for gameweek 7!

FPL 19/20 Chapter 6: Fraudiola's City

City would most likely get a CS right now unless their defence screws up again. Losing Laporte had truly impacted their team as Otamendi does not look reliable. Mendy might get some game time against Watford, and this would mean Zinchenko might not play.

#GW6 anytime scorer odds %

Kun: 65% Sterling: 59% Auba: 58% Pepe: 45% Kane: 43% Barnes: 43% Salah: 43% Mane: 40% Pukki: 40% Rashford: 37% B.Silva: 36% Richy: 36% Abraham: 35% Firmino: 35% Che: 35% Martial: 35% Siggy: 32% Jimi: 31% Wilson: 31% D.Silva: 30% Haller: 30%

Source: https://twitter.com/fplsalah1/status/1174594051066273792?s=19

By now, everyone would have their main team fixed. Many have strayed away from the Salah + Sterling Meta but it is still too early to find a new meta. Especially now that UCL and Europa league have already started.

Based on the "data" above, it would be best to Cap/Triple Captain a City player this coming GW6. However, no one is a confirmed starter right now other than Sterling. KDB started during the recent UCL win against Shahktar Donetsk. Aguero is fully rested for this weekend's game so he should start unless Fraudiola makes another unsuspecting move.

Defence wise, it just looks like clean sheets are hard to come by these past game weeks.

While there are some CS by a few teams recently, going for an offensive defender might be the better choice to get you the points. Or at least, that is how the trend appears to be these past 5 game weeks.

Source: https://redd.it/d6doyc

As a realistic Liverpool fan, it pains me to accept that it would be hard keeping a CS this coming game week against Chelsea. Keep TAA/VVD or Robertson (if you have him for some reason) if you must. Hopefully, they would get some points in via assist/goals.

Till then. All the best and the season is still young!

FPL 19/20 Chapter 5: The KDB Conundrum

Now that Internationals fixtures are almost over, one of many purposes of life can finally resume.

It is almost impossible to fit in all the key players in your FPL team.

However, these two players are ones to look at again based on their performance in the International fixtures.

KDB (Belgium vs Scotland) 

3 Assists 1 Goal

Sterling (England vs Kosovo)

2 Assists 1 Goal

Sterling was absent (no goals/assist) during last GW fixture vs Brighton at home. He still has so much potential but KDB looks more likely to get the points consistently in the season. Once again, this is based on current and projected form. Aguero, with Jesus still flagged/injured is more likely to be nailed on. He would definitely be a superstar differential.

The question is right now, how would one fit KDB in a team?

A midfield made up of 3 of the following

KDB/SALAH/STERLING/MANE with BARNES/PUKKI/HALLER/ABRAHAM?

Or 2 of the above midfielders and squeeze in an Aguero.

Whatever choice you make, have faith.

FPL 19/20 Chapter 4: Ancient of the Defense

Professional Defense of the Ancients players can rely on the game to bring them the moolah. Top winning team brought in about $15.5 million

https://www.engadget.com/2019/08/25/dota-2-the-international-2019-win-sets-records/

However, professional FPL players like us just cannot rely on premium Defence right now to bring us dem points!

photo from u/randomstrangerof of Reddit land.

From the past GW3, top teams are losing CS. Things might change in the future but investing your funds elsewhere might bring you more points.

More points > More chances of being top in your Mini-League > More gloating rights.

It is still early in the season. It would be interesting to see how players performed once UCL and the other tournaments start.

Aside from the Pukki train, these are some prospective players to look at.

1) NOR - Cantwell

2) LEI- Söyüncü
3) MANC - Aguero (Jesus injured and only back on 14th September)

Remember to stay calm in your transfers and do not get tilted!

FPL 19/20 Chapter 3: FOMO/Hivemind Disease

FPL success is 80% pure, evidence-based factual research and 20 % gut feeling.

- said no one ever.

Player of the week

There is simply no fixed rule to play FPL. Following the mainstream (highest ownership, transferred in/out), might be a safe method. However, successful people generally do what others do not do, like including Pukki in GW2.

Let's review the current Hivemind moves,

Top 5 "transfer in" for upcoming GW3

1) Pukki 693439

2) Ceballos 367994

3) De Bruyne 324272

4) Lundstram 289055

5) Martial

Top 5 " transfer out" for upcoming GW3

1) Alisson 1170496

2) Bernardo Silva 512673

3) Fraser 390797

4) Salah 283484

5) Zaha 281165

Lundstram is a no. 7, who is a designated 4.0 (now 4.1) million defender who plays in an offensive position for Sheffield Utd. 

Honestly as must-have for any team looking to fill up a 4.0 defender in their team. For now, he is a confirmed starter and probably the best 4.0 mil defender option out there.

Yet to see how Pukki performs this upcoming GW. Probably would bring in more followers if he scores again today.

It can be seen from the Transfer Outs above that the hivemind does not believe in Salah. Salah generally does not perform well against the top 6 (not sure if Arsenal belongs in this category now).

Only two gameweeks have passed. Salah still has much to offer for Liverpool. However, at 12.5 mil, some might believe it is more worth spending their money elsewhere.

Pros and cons to every decision. And remember to make your changes before Friday night ends! (SG time)

FPL 19/20 Chapter 2: Sterling + Salah: The new meta?

The new Meta?

With GW1 over, we have a brief idea of what is to come.

Most teams with at least 70 points in GW1 have Sterling(12 mil) + Salah (12.5 mil) in the teams. Looking at the performances, these two would most likely bring the points home consistently.

Sterling(hat trick) looks more likely to score goals independent of his position (centre/ left-wing forward). Guardiola would be more dependent on him rather than Jesus or Aguero to get him the goals. 

Salah got a goal + assist and has much more potential in him. He was taking corners more often during the game (one of the assists in GW1 was via a corner). Furthermore, he has a TSB% (Teams selected by %) of 44.7. If he is not in your team, you have got to make sure you have someone else better who can consistently bring the points week in week out.

One gameweek might be too soon to make a judgement of some other players who might provide consistent returns.

However, that being said, these are some interesting players to look at to make way for the premier/expensive players.

GK
Ryan (4.5 mil, bonus point and low FDR(fixture difficulty rankings) in the next 2 gameweeks)
Adrian (4.5 mil, tempting especially with Alisson out for the next few weeks)

DEF
Lundstram (4.0 mil, started in midfield in the previous game. might or might not start as there are other players in his main position )

MID
Dendoncker (4.5 mil, already in most teams have a TSB% of 15.6. His goal was disallowed. He is up in the box during set pieces and looks hungry to score.

FOR
Pukki (6.5 mil, great goal.Good positioning and played considerably well against Liverpool)
Barnes (6.5 mil, scored a brace, clinical finisher if he gets the opportunity


All the best for the next Gameweek!

FPL 19/20 Chapter 1: Pre-season ramble, The rocks.

"Good morning guys"

It is that time of the year again. 

100 million pounds

15 players

38 Game-weeks

And only one winner at the end well deserving enough to gloat on his success.

Who to pick?

It is futile to make an in-depth analysis of teams and their preseason matches to extrapolate expected results. Likewise, it is challenging to predict how players from the newly promoted teams (Sheffield United, Aston Villa and Norwich) are going to fare in the EPL. 

Too many possible factors. Let's keep it simple for our own mental well-being and avoid making 1000 iterations of a team during pre-season.

We can, however, have a list of "essentials" that would make up the bulk of the team budget.

Similar to the rock, pebble and sand analogy/advice towards life/time management. 

“Now,” the professor said as the laughter subsided. “I want you to recognize that this jar represents your life. The golf balls are the important things. Your family, your children, health, friends and favorite passions. If everything else was lost and only they remained, your life would still be full. The pebbles are the other things that matter like your job, your house or car. The sand is everything else, the small stuff.

It is a guarantee most FPL teams are going to contain players from the top 2 teams. Both Man City and Liverpool amassed nearly 100 points each in the previous season. 





Generally, at this stage, it is safer to go consistency and historical data to base to choose your team. We can leave the gambles and the risky moves during mid-season.

The Rocks

At best, if you have great budget management you can possibly fill in about 5 of the below "rocks" in your team. 4 should be the basic. Possibly more if the team has a couple of bench fodders. 

Pros and cons of the strategies that you'd be taking. Such is life.

Alisson is at 32.3% ownership and it is of no surprises the 3 Liverpool defenders (rather than the Man City defenders) above are the most owned players in a team currently.

With De Bruyne fit and well he might be included in the first team. Bernardo Silva has been an integral part of Guardiola's team last season but is currently a rotation risk along with Sterling. However, the goals and points should be coming from Sterling/De Bruyne. 

Mane still has AFCON finals (along with Mahrez if you care enough about him). He might not be starting as well for the first few games of EPL 2019/20.

In order of "rocks" rating of the top 6, I'd go with this

1. Alisson

2. Trent Alexander Arnold

3. Robertson

4. Aguero

5. De Bruyne 

6. Sterling

Well, that is it for now. Keep it simple. Put in your rocks and the rest can be decided later. Most importantly, have fun and enjoy the journey.

D-day for transfers: Sat 10 Aug 02:00 (Singapore Time)


https://balancedaction.me/2012/10/17/the-jar-of-life-first-things-first/


https://www.fplanalytics.com/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zKXCX4BoizwHdARVHbIYNvZr7GcE0QBNqktUiFtsjg8/edit